El-Sayed Leads Rogers by 6 Points in Michigan U.S. Senate Race

A new survey from Senate Majority PAC found Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 50 percent to 44 percent in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race.

El-Sayed benefits from a strongly Democratic political environment and an electorate that has turned decisively against Donald Trump, less than two years after his narrow 2024 Michigan win, according to the survey conducted by GBAO.

Trump’s job performance ratings in the state are deeply negative: Thirty-nine percent of voters approve, while 58 percent disapprove, including 50 percent who strongly disapprove. His personal favorability is similarly weak, at 35 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable.

Trump’s numbers are particularly weak among Independents (32 percent approve / 66 percent disapprove), women (32 percent approve / 64 percent disapprove), and voters under 40 (29 percent approve / 68 percent disapprove).

Michigan voters also say they want Democrats, rather than Republicans, to control the U.S. Senate, 47 percent to 41 percent, a preference driven heavily by Independents.

“Michigan voters have made up their minds on Donald Trump and Mike Rogers, and they’re ready to send Abdul El-Sayed to the Senate,” said Lauren French, Senate Majority PAC Spokesperson. “This race is shaping up to be a referendum on a failed agenda that has made life more expensive for working families, and Michiganders are rejecting it in overwhelming numbers.”

GBAO surveyed 800 Michigan likely voters August 6-10, 2026, via live-caller and text-to-online interviews. The results are subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5. ​Read the memo.