NEW POLL: Cornyn Lags in Texas Senate Runoff With or Without Trump Endorsement

Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a 5-point lead over Republican Senator John Cornyn in the May Texas GOP primary runoff, an advantage Paxton retains even if President Trump were to endorse Cornyn, new polling conducted by GQR found.

The poll, conducted in late March for Senate Majority PAC, tested the impact of a potential Trump endorsement of Cornyn, as well as the effects of positive and negative messaging against the candidates, on the race. The results are unambiguous: Cornyn’s record on guns, the border, and his repeated opposition to Trump is politically toxic with the Republican primary electorate he needs to win.

Paxton currently holds a 47% to 42% percent lead over the longtime GOP incumbent Senator. The survey found that the likely electorate skews MAGA heavily. Nearly 85% identify as MAGA supporters, and 69% call themselves Strong Republicans.

The poll’s most striking finding may be how little a Trump endorsement of Cornyn does. Using a split-sample design, in which half of the respondents heard that Trump endorsed Cornyn and half heard no endorsement, the effect is negligible:

•  Without a Trump endorsement: Paxton leads 48%–42%

•  With a Trump endorsement: Paxton leads 47%–43%

When voters learn the facts about Cornyn’s record, the race shifts dramatically. After hearing Cornyn’s negatives, Paxton’s lead jumps to 47%–41%.

Critically for Paxton, his supporters are significantly more enthusiastic than Cornyn’s, with 38% calling themselves “Strong Paxton” voters, compared to just 30% who say they are “Strong Cornyn” supporters.

Overall, Cornyn is underwater with the runoff electorate, with 51% viewing him unfavorably. Paxton stands at 56% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

“John Cornyn is an incumbent senator who is already losing, in an electorate structurally hostile to him and with a negative personal image he cannot repair, facing an opponent whose supporters are more committed than his own,” said Senate Majority PAC Spokesperson Lauren French. “The numbers don’t show a candidate who is struggling. They show a candidate who is losing – and not even Donald Trump can save him.”

This survey was conducted by GRQ from March 19 – 23 and included 600 likely voters in the Texas Republican primary runoff. The margin of error is ±4.0 percentage points. Read the memo.