POLLING: Talarico Leads Cornyn and Paxton in Texas U.S. Senate Matchups

A new statewide poll finds Democratic candidate James Talarico leading both potential Republican nominees in the Texas U.S. Senate race, signaling a competitive contest driven by the GOP candidates’ significant baggage and Talarico’s popularity with Texans.

In general election matchups, Talarico leads John Cornyn 44% to 43% and Ken Paxton 47% to 45%, according to a new survey for Senate Majority PAC. The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted March 4–5 among 576 Texas voters with a margin of error at +/- 4/1%.

The survey also shows Talarico with a stronger overall image among voters, while both Republican candidates have deep unfavorable ratings with Texas voters.

Favorability ratings among Texas voters:

• James Talarico: +6 net favorability (41% favorable)
• John Cornyn: –28 net favorability (53% unfavorable)
• Ken Paxton: –24 net favorability (54% unfavorable)

The numbers underscore the political vulnerability facing both Republicans as they head toward what is expected to be an expensive and divisive runoff. Cornyn, in particular, appears to be struggling with the Republican base that powered Donald Trump’s 2024 victory in Texas. Among Trump voters, 25% say they would not support Cornyn in a general election, and only 39% view him favorably.

“With both Republican candidates deeply underwater with voters, Texans are showing they’re ready for a new generation of leadership. The MAGA base is rejecting incumbent Republican John Cornyn, and Ken Paxton’s extensive baggage is dragging his numbers down with everyday Texas voters,” said Senate Majority PAC Spokesperson Lauren French. “Meanwhile, James Talarico is building a coalition focused on lowering costs, bringing Texans together, and bringing accountable leadership to Washington.”

Last week, Public Policy Polling called Talarico’s 6-point victory in the Democratic primary exactly correctly. Read the full polling memo.